EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK

EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SIX MONTHS AND BEYOND

It’s that time of year again. With January on the horizon, you may well be wondering what 2024 has in store. We’ve had a dive into the big picture to retrieve the key employment trends. Here is the employment outlook for the next six months . . . and beyond.

SLOWDOWN IN EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

Employment increased by 0.2% to 14,145,400 in October according to recent stats from the ABS. Unemployment remained at 3.7%; however, the latest Deloitte Access Economics report expects that this situation is will change in 2024. The report predicts a rise in unemployment to 4.5% by June next year as 13 interest rate rises in 18 months finally take full effect. Growth in employment is also expected to slow next year, increasing by just 1.4% compared with 4.1% in 2002-23.

INDUSTRY GROWTH & DECLINE

According to a recent report commissioned by Jobs & Skills Australia, these are some of the industries where employment growth is set to increase the most:

  • Healthcare & Social Assistance
  • Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
  • Education & Training
  • Accommodation & Food Services

And we’re not just talking about the next six months here, but longer-term to May 2033!

Employment growth is expected to be much slower in a number of industries, including:

  • Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
  • Administrative & Support Services
  • Information Media & Telecommunications

OCCUPATIONS: RISE & FALL

The strong predicted employment growth in Healthcare & Social Assistance and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services translates, unsurprisingly, to employment growth in related occupations. Professionals and Managers are likely to show strong growth over the next 10 years. So too are Community & Personal Service Workers.

Some occupations are likely to fare less well in terms of employment growth, including Labourers and Sales Workers.

A HIGHLY SKILLED WORKFORCE

Post-school education is increasingly becoming an asset in the labour market, with Skill level 1 occupations – which typically require a bachelor’s degree or higher – predicted to experience the strongest employment growth over the next 5-10 years.

Skill level 4 occupations are also predicted to show a significant increase in employment growth. These occupations include Aged and Disabled Carers, Child Carers and Education Aides. Occupations at this level generally require a Certificate II or III.

Occupations at Skill levels 3 and 5 show markedly less projected employment growth.

As we head into 2024, it could be worth reflecting on how these employment trends may impact your business. What does the future look like for your industry? Do you need to rethink the types of people you are recruiting, or look at enhanced training and development? And personally, how will employment growth impact your career path? Do you need to upskill or reskill in order to stay ahead of the game? Plenty of food for thought over the festive season.

To discuss your recruitment needs for 2024, please contact the professional team at Optimal Recruitment today on info@optimalrecruitment.com.au or 02 8416 4181.